I think you have gotten very solid advice from @collegemom3717 and @Mwfan1921 to seek GC advice. Given your school is public and has 1500 kids, I appreciate that it might be tough but you need that input to
potentially avoid wasting your early options.
Impossible got us to accurately access you if even you don’t know where you stand and or how your school typically places both broadly and at the specific schools you mention.
I would also add that given your upward trend (congratulations) your LOR will be extremely important. Your teachers will be able to quantify and qualify you in relative terms. Think hard about who is best qualified to describe the student and person you have become.
It is great that you have already considered cost and “set” your list. I will respect your request not to suggest schools but given your obvious preference for schools like Yale, Middlebury, Brown and Mount Holyoke there are lots of less selective options beyond the larger state schools on your list that might be a better fit.