Cornell and U.Penn are not likely. They are reaches.
MIT, Harvard, Columbia and Princeton are not toss-up’s. They are reaches. Caltech, Yale, and Stanford are similarly reaches.
There are no safeties on your list. There are no likely’s on your list.
You should figure that somewhere between 80% and 85% of applicants to these schools have stats similar to yours. You know what the acceptance rates are.
If you do get to attend MIT or Caltech you should be aware that you might be an average student at these schools. Your math SAT score is actually a tiny bit low for MIT and Caltech. There really are students at these two schools who did not see a single question on the math part of the regular SAT test that was remotely challenging. These students still find classes at MIT or Caltech to be challenging.
Make sure that you apply to safeties.
You can attend any of a few hundred colleges and universities in the US and have about the same chance of getting accepted to medical school. Yes the top schools do get a higher percentage of their incoming freshman to medical school. However, a lot of this, and some might speculate perhaps all of this, comes from the consistent high quality of the students who start at these top schools. There will be plenty of equally strong students in premed classes at any of the SUNY’s or any other “top 200” university, but there will just be a higher number of them at HYPSM.
And if you are serious about being premed (and your ECs make it look like you are), then you should budget for a full 8 years of university. It would be best if you can save some money in the college fund for medical school, or for some other form of graduate school.
One last thing that might be worth mentioning: Your stats are excellent. Your stats suggest that you are academically strong enough to get to medical school and do well. This is however a long and expensive and very demanding path. You need to be drawn to it. Determination and hard work and sticking with it for a full 8 years (plus residency) are going to be at least as important as academic strength.
And you need to apply to safeties. Depending upon how much you like your safeties, you might also want to apply to likely’s.