OK. If a level of sacrifice is definitively present, then I think that you should add a few NMS merit-friendly schools to your list, if only as safeties.
Are you familiar with the concept of Honors Colleges are public universities? If not, you might want to read “Where You Go Is Not Who You’ll Be: An Antidote to the College Admissions Mania” and “Inside Honors 2020-2021: Ratings and Reviews of 40 Public University Honors Programs”