MIT says you can apply elsewhere early if the other college’s policies allow it. So, just triple check that.
And, like someone else said, ED is a commitment to withdraw all other applications…so only ED if you are sure.
No one can chance you for MIT. But, yes, you have a shot.
If you want to maximize your chances of admissions at a T20 and are interested in playing tennis in college…talk to the coaches.
If they are interested in recruiting you, you certainly can get in on your own merits. So, the coach’s interest might make the difference.
See who seems the most interested and if you would be happy there, (R)EA/ED.