My S20 has slightly lower, but similar stats – GPA UW 3.5 / W 4.7 with SAT 1510 and similar AP classes/scores. He has had good success getting accepted to large state schools, including those considered more selective (e.g., 50% acceptance rates). Smaller schools in the most selective range (e.g., 17-30% acceptance rates) have been more hit or miss, but he was accepted EA to Tulane (and is super excited about it). Even though schools do look at unweighted GPA, they also look at course rigor and many apply some kind of weighting system. We definitely cast a wide net given the GPA, with more than a couple of safety-type schools. A few rolling admissions schools are nice to have too. ED obviously helps, and I would encourage you to show applicant interest regardless (visit, meet with reps at school, attend local events, etc.) because many of the smaller, most selective schools consider this. Also, consider/apply to residential colleges and honors programs offered at some of the larger state schools. My S is now considering one of his “safeties” because he was offered a spot in the science/math residential college + honors college, with multiple merit scholarships.
I think your school list is a good start, but you are missing some safety options. Add a few of those for sure. And good luck!