I am not a counselor but logically I would disagree.
I assume you applied RD by the “merit” deadline for Emory - which is months before the RD deadline.
Schools that offer ED know RD offers nothing definitive. Kids apply to RD because it’s not their top choice or because they need to see offers. After all, Emory is expensive.
If you are turned down ED and change your RD to ED2, you still hit the merit deadline although anecdotally, a school would have little need to offer ED students money (some do I know).
It makes no sense that Emory would prefer an RD over ED - because ED is a guaranteed butt in seat, a guaranteed form of revenue. An RD is still a risk - and in the case of Emory, their last published yield is 34% - so a third of kids accepted enroll. Take out ED and it’s lower!!!
Now - if you were to say, I’d love Emory but can’t afford full pay and I don’t qualify for need aid - then yes ED is wrong.
But - and again I’m not a counselor - but I see zero logic for Emory preference or better odds at RD over ED. But I see why a student (like my daughter that loved Emory) applied RD - because dad wasn’t footing $80K+ a year and we needed the merit to consider attending.
I would say ED is your best odds (not counting merit), then RD. Of course, adding Oxford can only help. And Emory WL a ton - more than 6500 offered my daughter’s year for a class of 1500 (of which 3883 joined) - so assuming she’s there stats wise, that’s the worst case - but it’s also a ridiculously unfair and false hope they set by adding so many. Unless you were one of the 21 that got in.
Best of luck whatever she decides - but as she applied to NYU ED, I would assume the finances work so ED2 (in my opinion) would give her a far better chance at Emory. Both meet need (if that’s a concern - to which you can run the NPC).
Good luck