Not sure it matters, as none of us have the ability to chance because we don’t have visibility to all the important application components.
Additionally, for QB, as I said above, one of the primary determinants of successfully becoming a finalist is the student’s EFC. Most finalists have an EFC zero, or close to it. As EFC rises, chance of becoming a finalist decreases. Once the EFC is not in Pell grant territory (EFC a bit over $6k), my understanding is it’s unlikely the student would be named a finalist. Like anything, I expect there are exceptions, but OP should run the EFC estimator I linked to above.