Stanford is of course a reach. I would guess your chances as somewhere in the single digit percentages, but whether it is 2% or 9% is hard to say. Either way you need a safer option.
“I would apply to UVA”
I strongly agree. UVA is a great school and you are very lucky to have such as strong school as your in-state flagship. With your strong stats plus NMF plus in-state I would expect you to get in and to do very well at UVA.