Are you a recruited sports player? If you are top 30 I’d hope so.
You yourself rate your essays as not the best.
They show 73% had a 4.0. Is that weighted or unweighted, I don’t know.
Your SAT is at the mid point.
If I had to guess, less than 3.6% odds.
No one can give you any assurance on a school like Stanford.
You applied - so see what happens.
But the top 30 athlete part is intriguing - why not take advantage of it?
Good luck.