Assume everyone applying has your same stats, so your chance is about 4%. It’s basically a lottery school, but if it’s your first choice then why not take your chance? Do you have a 2nd choice? Some of the schools on your list have ED2 so you could possibly apply ED2 if you get denied from Stanford. Stanford denies most, they don’t defer a ton like some schools, so just be emotionally prepared. Good luck to you!