So quick background. There are three basic “gates” you need to pass through when it comes to highly-selective holistic review colleges where you are “unhooked” (like not a recruited athlete or such): academic, activities, and personal attributes.
Based on what you told us, I doubt you will have much problem getting through the academic gates anywhere. Which means you can probably apply anywhere you think is a good fit for you.
Activities is much harder to assess. Part of the problem is this is contextual–what activities do they think they need their enrolled class to be doing, what activities do they see you doing at their college, who else is applying who might do the same things? We don’t really know. So while I wouldn’t suggest this should keep you from applying anywhere, it is a source of fundamental uncertainty.
And then personal attributes–really, it is impossible for us, or you, to really know how you will come across to them once they have read your recommendations, your essays, possibly interviewed you, and so on. I note the vast majority of otherwise qualified applicants will at least score as what Harvard once called “generally positive”. But to get admitted as an unhooked application, you likely need to instead score as what Harvard once called “very strong” (we know all this about Harvard due to a lawsuit). What exactly makes the difference between otherwise qualified applicants they see as “very strong” on personal attributes versus merely “generally positive”? How can we know in advance who will be seen which way?
We can’t, you can’t, that’s just the nature of the process. Really all you can do is see what they say about what they are looking for (usually they have information like this on their websites, possibly have discussed it in recorded information sessions, podcasts, interviews, or so on), and then focus on the schools which most seem to be talking about you.
OK, so you pick a list of these highly selective colleges where you think you are really what they are looking for, and then write your best possible applications.
And you also pick some colleges where your academic qualifications are not just good enough, but are actually more like top 25th-percentile-ish for them. For some of those, you may still need to be careful you are picking good fits. For others, realistically, your numbers and not being a notorious axe-murderer might be enough. Either way, if your numbers are outstanding enough by their normal standards, and they have a robust merit program, they may in fact offer you merit, and/or honors programs, and so on. And because for one reason or another you might well end up taking one of these offers, you make sure they are all really good fits for you in the important ways.
And then you apply and see what happens. If you follow the above advice, you will have done what you can to get into one or more of the most selective schools on your list. And if that doesn’t work out, you should still have multiple great offers to consider. Indeed, sometimes people actually surprise themselves and take a great offer from a less selective college even though they got an offer from a more selective college. It happens more than some kids expect, when the applicant did a good job choosing colleges for their list.