I’m just a boarding school parent, but it seems to me you have as good a chance as anyone, and probably better than most, of being admitted. You are a strong candidate! Does that mean you will definitely get in? Of course not.
If your family may move to Texas, in that case you wouldn’t stay at your great NJ school, right? If that is the case then wouldn’t it make sense to apply to some safety schools so that you would have a boarding school option in the event of a TX move?