Well that is the Million dollar question. Wish it was that easy. I personally do think the essay is really important but just one factor in the decision making for the AO. Some states like Illinois have a larger population of students going to Michigan and applying. I personally think writing a Letter of intent not a Loci prior to the EA selection is helpful. Going to the Michigan talks when they come to your region /school and letting the AO know you were there. Ask a pertinent question also. . Visiting helps. My son met with two professors when visiting and used that in the essay. Researching the school and using it in the essay.
Plus just having certain intangible qualities that they are looking for that year when they “build” their class.
Also some plain old luck doesn’t hurt. ??.