Keep in mind that it’s not the “average” student that post on CC. It’s a self-selected group of students that are applying to “selective” (or “elite”) schools, even those posting on UF’s forums. You’re seeing a few dozen “chance me” threads, out of 40,000+ applications.
At UF, the Acceptance rate for OOS students is about the same as In-state students. UF is nothing like UNC when it comes to how competitive it is for OOS students (UNC is around 13%, while UF is around 38-40%). .