You have an excellent profile. Congrats on a job well done!
Although I think your classifications (ex. safety, likely etc.) are too aggressive, you are a viable candidate for any college. However, as others have said, an excellent HS record is no guarantee of acceptance to an elite university. Simply put, there are many more worthy candidates than there are spots available.
If you were my child I’d encourage you to apply ED to Penn since it is “by far your top choice” as ED will improve your chance of acceptance. I would also encourage you to apply as early as possible to schools with rolling admission options (ex. UM, UT, UW etc. and add in a couple of less selective schools like Pitt, Ohio State etc.). Once you have acceptance(s) in hand from rolling admissions schools you would be happy to attend then that becomes your safety. After that if you don’t get into Penn you can focus your attention on colleges you would prefer to attend over your top EA acceptances. I do agree that UToronto could be a good option to have. On the off chance you get no EA acceptances and don’t get into Penn then you would need to re-evaluate your application list.
Take a deep breath. You are a fine student and should be poised for success at any college you attend.