You previously mentioned in describing your local experience…”for example, in this year’s graduating class of 300, over a dozen are going Ivy, including 3 going to Yale).”
This is not representative, indicative or relevant to OP who describes her local experience as; “No one from my district has gone to an ivy league in years… and even then it was 1 student from years ago.”
At super elite schools typically 75%+ of students are described and academically qualified and I have heard AOs quote that 25%+ of applicants are val or sad.
I admire your optimism but don’t see it as validated by my experience looking more broadly then versus a school such as your kids HS that appears to punch above its statistical weight. That is not the case for this student unfortunately.
FYI put your faith in college lab calculator or any other such predictor at your own peril.