Just because I don’t know how Northwestern will view the special circ, it’s really hard to tell. You should definitely go ED that is by far a better chance for you. Maybe as it is right now, 25-45%. Really depends on how they view it. If it were me, I’d put you closer to the 45-50 range. Chance back?
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/what-my-chances/1798119-chance-northwestern.html#latest