Chance me / Match me: CA resident , Rising Senior [3.78 GPA (3.68/4.05/4.23 for UC), 1500 SAT (1530 super), <$300k total to degree, computer science/engineering or aerospace engineering]

Thanks, is this Ohio State?

Yes. Ohio State offered $14.5K merit/year to S24. COA ended up about the same as in state UC. This is a good option if you don’t get into top/mid tier UCs.

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People say “tOSU” because it is The Ohio State University, and it helps to distinguish it from Oregon State which also has initials OSU.

Speaking of Oregon State, this can be an excellent “likely” school for CA engineering students. The honors program is top notch, especially for engineering, because they offer small honors classes throughout your engineering major all the way to the upper division classes. Worth checking out.

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The Arizona publics have listed automatic admission criteria that you appear to meet, and Alabama has listed automatic scholarship criteria that you appear to meet. Verify that you meet the criteria; if so, then they would be safety/assured rather than likely.

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ha ha, and there is Oklahoma State Univ too.

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Yes, and there are also other pairs of universities that often confuse people on this site, such as UW and UW, USC and USC, I’m sure there are more… :grin:

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But it’s not The Oklahoma State U - it’s just Oklahoma State U.

Ohio State is The Ohio State University or tOSU.

Colleges have wierd notations like U of Colorado is CU, U of Oklahoma is OU, U of Denver is DU but U of Delaware is UD. I once read that is due to being East or West of the Mississippi River but I’m not sure. Plenty of West Coast schools are U of initial.

U Arizona won’t have assured admission for Fall 2026 due to a new policy. They are also moving to an EA and RD application model and will no longer have rolling admission. None of this is reflected on their website, but the ABOR (Arizona Board of Regents) policy is updated with this:

https://public.powerdms.com/ABOR/documents/3043872

Which supersedes the old 2-121 ABOR policy:

https://public.powerdms.com/ABOR/documents/1491561

I assume this affects all the Arizona publics, but haven’t heard directly from ASU or NAU. I also don’t know if there will be updates to their merit awards.

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Btw I had filled out the template religiously, but I am not sure how do the following categories map to safety, target, reach buckets?

  • Extremely Likely
  • Likely
  • Toss up
  • Lower Probability
  • Low Probability

The closest equivalents of the above to the traditional descriptors are:

  • Assured → Safety
  • Extremely Likely → Likely
  • Likely → Match
  • Toss up → High Match
  • Lower Probability → Low Reach
  • Low probability → (Realistic) Reach

Note that if the college is not affordable at list price, the chances must be for getting the needed scholarships and/or financial aid to make it affordable, since admission but too expensive is the same as rejection.

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I think it depends on what area of the country you’re in, what your school uses, etc.

For instance, if forced to correlate those categories, mine would look different from @ucbalumnus’, looking more like:

  • Safety = Extremely Likely and the likelier likelies (maybe 70-100%)

  • Target: Toss Up and low-end of likelies (maybe 40-70%)

  • Lower Proability: Low Reach (20-40%)

  • Low Probability: Reach (less than 20%)

Because people use the same words for slightly different meanings, I usually do my chancing with a percentage, like this:

  • Extremely Likely: 80-99+%
  • Likely: 60-79%
  • Toss-Up: 40-59%
  • Lower Probability: 20-39%
  • Low Probability: less than 20%

With those percentages, it’s easier for readers to gauge their chances rather than trying to figure out what certain terms mean to someone else.

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It looks to me that OPs $300K budget will cover every school on their initial list.

Oregon State is likely for admission but not so certain that WUE will be offered. CU Boulder is very expensive and Arizona is going to be expensive too (no WUE, merit is based on UWGPA). ASU has merit for SAT scores (at least historically) so will be cheaper than U of AZ. Utah is also worth considering if you want to stay in the west, your stats should be sufficient for WUE.

But that doesn’t mean you should spend it just because it’s there. Weigh up value for money, especially if you are considering OOS vs instate publics.

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You speak my language :slight_smile:

When is someone is eligible for WUE tuition vs not.

What is OSU’s WUE Scholarship and who is eligible?

OSU’s WUE Scholarship is Oregon State’s most competitive scholarship for new undergraduate students who are residents of a WUE-eligible U.S. state or territory. Recipients are selected based on a holistic review of their admission application. The selected students will receive a tuition discount that reduces the cost of their base tuition to no more than 150% of base tuition for resident students. OSU’s WUE Scholarship is renewable for up to four years (twelve terms) of support total.

WUE Scholarships are competitive (not automatically awarded) and awarded based on a holistic review of your application for admission. Only about 30% of students from WUE-eligible states and territories will be offered the WUE Scholarship, but many more will receive the Provost Scholarship to recognize their academic success and help offset the cost of non-resident tuition. Full WUE FAQ

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A student in the listed states is eligible. However, public schools in those states may:

  • Offer WUE to all eligible students.
  • Offer WUE to only some eligible students:
    • May limit by major.
    • May treat it as a competitively awarded scholarship (Oregon State falls into this category).
  • Not offer WUE at all.
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You are eligible (as a CA resident). But it’s more competitive at OSU (where I’d say you are marginal but might well get it) than Utah (where historically 3.7UW has been sufficient to guarantee it and it’s possible to receive it at 3.5-3.6UW plus decent SAT and/or rigor). It’s not offered at CU Boulder/U of AZ/ASU (except in certain majors at remote AZ campuses that won’t be relevant to you).

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Thanks, do you think I have right number of schools in each category as of now; or do I need to rebalance?

I may consider replacing UCM, CSU Pomona w/ something else; but I just want to focus on the category vs number of schools for now!

UNR is another to look at, reporting salaries in 2023 of over $70,000 from those who reported.

They have both aero and computer engineering - and would be well under budget whether through WUE or as a normal student/merit.

The right # of safeties is at least one, maybe two.

If you’re replacing UCM and CPP, that tells me you’re not interested in attending those, that you’d be disappointed if that’s all you had.

The trick to the safety category is to have one or two so you have choice, assured and affordable safeties - that you’d love to attend!!

After that, your list can be as you want.

Some only apply to safeties - for example, they might be Harvard worthy but have their sights on all Big 10 schools or all SEC schools.

Others apply only to their local school.

My kid applied to 15 but at the end said, if I wasn’t so hard headed and I visited the school I ultimately ended up (but initially refused to visit), he would have applied and been done in 3 days and saved the hassle.

So there is no right #.

One could argue - if you had that back up you’d be ok with - say U of A or ASU - that every other school they applied to could be a hard reach.

It really depends on the person.

Some apply to 1, some to 21.

It’s all person dependent. There is not a right amount per bucket or a need to fill the buckets.

There is a need to have that most important school on your list - the affordable and assured that excites you.

After that, you make up the rules.

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