I’m not familiar with in-state admissions because I am out of state, but both UVA and W&M are excellent excellent excellent schools for the price you will pay. There is a reason UVA can charge almost $80k with absolute zero merit aid and still fill a third of the school with out of state students. A W&M degree got Jon Stewart creative writing gigs.
Mary Washington has a strong history & political science program and seems to fit with his other choices. Dickinson, Gettysburg, Susquehanna all similar sizes and locations and all give aid. Carlisle more of a town than the other two.