No one here can chance you. You are a strong applicant and could very well end up at a T20. Likewise, you could be shut out. A lot will rest on the narrative you present and the quality of your essays - that is why I, personally, believe less might be more in this case. Also, it can be very, very tough to end admissions season with a string of rejections so you need to keep that in mind. At the end of the day if you would be truly happy at your in-state option, then it may not matter much. Most of us would suggest adding a couple of targets just so you increase your chances of a choice which always feels better than ending up at what you tell yourself is your fall back.
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