That is very kind of you to say, but I don’t feel qualified to say anything beyond “low probability” (i.e. sub-20%) chance for strong candidates to make it into a school that’s a reach-for-all-qualified students. That is not to say that I would estimate a student with a weaker profile as having a sub-20% rate for those schools (I might go so far as to say less than 1% or 5% or not worth an application), but for strong students, I just categorize them as low probability.
I suspect the only thing that might give a bigger nudge than normal is the NASA internship where the applicant was one of 82 chosen out of 3,000, but I don’t know if that would be enough for someone like @hebegebe to make a guess beyond “low probability.”