Apply to Emory ED - much higher chances. I think you have great chances ED, but something cool about Emory is you can apply to BOTH Emory and Oxford College of Emory together ED and they review you independently as some students get into both. I think you are a viable candidate for both - BUT if Emory is your dream school - be open to Oxford as well because you will end up in Emory Atlanta after two years. My daughter got into Oxford regular decision and LOVES it there! But you have to be ok with a smaller/rural vibe but you will know EVERYONE and be very one on one with your profs. I think as an NC resident you are getting in NCSU and have very good chance for UNC CH.