I think you will be a strong applicant and have a legitimate shot at all the schools on your list. If you have a clear first choice, then ED makes sense to improve your odds, as it appears you are interested in doing at Duke. Just because you have a legitimate shot doesn’t mean it’s likely. I’d put your chances at below 20% for all of your reaches, but that is not a reflection on you but on the extreme competitiveness of the admissions pool. There are far more extremely talented students who want to attend these universities than there are spots. But, you could be accepted to many or all of the schools. Just realize that the odds are not in your favor.
I’ve chanced you for your schools below, and added in a couple other Top X schools that might interest you (those schools are bolded). Realize that these are just my very fallible guesses as to what your chances might be.
Extremely Likely (80-99+%)
- Your state schools
Likely (60-79%)
- George Washington (D.C.) is another school that I would go so far to consider a likely, if you show it a lot of interest, that offers biophysics and a popular ABET-accredited bio engineering degree.
Toss-Up (40-59%)
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Bucknell (PA ) which has ABET-accredited biomedical and chemical engineering, biophysics
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UIUC: If you apply as engineering, it’d probably be a toss-up. If you applying as biophysics, I think you’d be a likely. But if you think you really might end up in engineering, apply in engineering.
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U. of Rochester
Lower Probability (20-39%)
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Case Western: Make sure you show it lots of love or it will drop into the low probability category
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Duke ED: Would drop to low probability without ED, and it’s currently sitting on the lower end of this category.
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Georgetown (D.C.): I would generally always put this in the Low Probability category, but because of your interests, I think your chances are greater, because people usually flock to Georgetown for the social sciences, and they don’t have as much interest in their strong science programs. It does not have engineering, though, so if you definitely want that, then this would not be the school for you. Here’s more info on its biological physics program: Biological Physics | Department of Physics | Georgetown University
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U. of Miami (FL): Within its biomedical engineering degree it offers a focus on neural engineering, one of your more particular interests. And I’d probably say I’m close to calling this school as a toss-up for you.
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Wake Forest
Low Proability (less than 20%)
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CMU, WashU, Emory, Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt, Rice
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U. of Pennsylvania: You have your biophysics, bioengineering, and chemical and biomolecular engineering here, too.