Even if you get deferred, then you are in RD. But what’s the harm of applying early ?
maybe no harm, but for schools that have ED like UVA an U-M - 0 advantage IMO. And odds of deferral seem to have crept up because they are protecting yield. Would you increase odds by applying direct to RD… starting to feel that way.
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I agree with this. Of course if Wake was their second choice, and they were actually denied by their first choice in the first early round (it gets tricky when you are instead deferred), then that’s fine. But if you have a good list overall, I agree you should trust that process over forcing an ED2 application somewhere that isn’t really your top remaining choice.
Can other schools see how many I apply to?
Apparently not. If there’s no place for it on the Common App, then no.
Understanding it was actually another poster who wrote that, my answer is no, schools are not supposed to know where else you are applying, unless they ask and you tell them.
However, an important piece of background information is that often selective colleges have some sort of sophisticated yield model. This model can potentially include as inputs anything in your application, any information they can independently gather about your school, about your home zipcode, potentially information from a financial aid application (possibly even if they claim to be need blind—there is a lawsuit about that), internal data including possibly tracking data for prior applicants from your high school, and so on.
OK, so I agree it is at least possible that a college would look at all that information and determine your chances of accepting their offer are low. That implicitly means they think you are likely to get one or more offers you prefer. It doesn’t have to look like that in terms of output, like the yield model could just say, “Margot3: yield probability 3%.” But that’s the basic underlying reason it would be that low: they may not be sure where, because they don’t know where you are applying, but their yield model implicitly thinks it is very likely you will get an offer you prefer from some other college. And perhaps in some cases like that, a college will defer or waitlist an applicant they would like to get, but don’t think they realistically can get.
Of course if you apply binding early, aka Early Decision, then presumably the output becomes: “Margot3: yield probability 97%”. Sidenote: probably not exactly 100%, as things do happen, and in fact that 97% is based on the few cases I have seen where a college actually revealed their ED yields. But it can potentially take a very low yield model output and turn it into a very high one.
And that’s useful if that is correcting a misapprehension on their part. Like, suppose by the time you are applying to Wake ED2, it is in fact your top remaining choice. So it is actually true if you got an offer from Wake, you would take it no matter what other offers you got. If Wake’s yield model is erroneously saying you only have a 3% chance of accepting their offer, they could conceivably waitlist you in error, even if they really want you. So by applying ED2, you are preventing such an error.
But . . . if Wake is not in fact your top choice, their yield model in this hypothesis is probably right! Meaning it is probably very likely you will get an offer you prefer. And that means it would probably be a bad idea to bind yourself to Wake, rather than see what offers you actually get.
No, they can’t. If I top student applies EA, at a school that offers both ED and EA, they assume you are looking for something better. Given the increased number of applicants, colleges are not always taking the very best students, or even the very best fits. Their yield would go down too much if they did. The evolution of college admissions at the top end is fascinating.
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I note the cynical interpretation of all this is that they are just hunting better reported statistics, but I personally don’t think that is a major factor. Like, yield isn’t even reported broadly anywhere. It isn’t an input to the US News ranking formula. Or so on.
However, that doesn’t mean this isn’t happening. I just think when it does happen, it is typically mostly because the college is actually trying to get the best possible class to enroll.
Long story short, if there is enough uncertainty in their yield models in these tail cases, then admitting a lot of tail cases would mean they can’t admit as many higher-yield cases for fear of possible overenrollment. But then if the yield from the tail cases turns out poorly that year, they will need to go to their waitlist to prevent underenrollment. And at the end of all that, they might have been better off just taking more higher-yield cases in the first place.
Of course one way some colleges try to address this is with merit offers. Presumably their yield models show that if you give certain applicants enough merit, their yield either gets higher, or at least more predictable, or maybe some of both.
But there are a decent number of selective colleges with little or no merit, and which are plausibly facing significant issues reliably predicting which of their most competitive applicants will actually yield at what rates. And perhaps those colleges are in fact finding they do better in the end by not holding open offers for too many such applicants.
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I was so close to going there in my last posts lol. I agree on merit. Also, honors colleges. They need to decide whether they can get the A 1500+ student they want with those sweeteners vs deferring them. It must not be easy. I plan to share my son’s current process in depth because you can feel the strategy best when it is happening to you.
Chance Me - and I WILL PROVIDE DETAIL OF PROCESS AND RESULTS IN APRIL [93 GPA, 1530 SAT, business]. Chance Me - and I WILL PROVIDE DETAIL OF PROCESS AND RESULTS IN APRIL [93 GPA, 1530 SAT, business] - #44 by heavyweightcollege
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Given your background I would see it as:
Safety:
Wake Forest University
Strong Targets:
Washington University in St. Louis
Duke University (especially ED)
Emory University
University of Virginia
University of Michigan
University of Texas at Austin
Reach:
Princeton University
University of Pennsylvania
Dartmouth College
Cornell University
Some of the “strong targets” could become much more feasible depending on how you go about applying ED and EA and if they take into consideration expressed interest. Though others can become extremely selective when applying OOS.
My son and most of his friends had higher SAT scores and similar background to yours and did not get accepted to many of the schools on your list (including in cases where they had legacy status). I am sure you will get accepted at a couple of these schools but you may want to add 1-2 less selective schools with 20-30% acceptance rates like Wake Forest.
I don’t want to derail OP’s thread, but why do so many people here think that Wake is a safety/likely? I agree that OPs stats are excellent, but overall acceptance rate is in the low 20s. Non ED rates will be even lower. This seems like it’s at best a target, and I’d probably put anything less than 20% as a reach even with the stats.
This said, I do think OP has a fantastic (better than typical, for sure) shot at Wake. They do value demonstrated interest, so showing that would certainly seem to be important here.
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Yeah, that’s not how Wake was treated in my S24’s private HS, despite it regularly sending some kids to the most selective colleges.
Colleges as selective as Wake generally would not be treated as Likelies/Safeties. However, our HS had enough experience with Wake to be able to tell some people it would make a good Target for them. For others it would be a Reach, or indeed an Unlikely (which they discouraged for applications).
But the fact it could even be a Target for some depended on their confidence that they had a pretty good idea what Wake tended to like. That confidence did not extend far enough to tell anyone it was actually usable as a Safety/Likely. But for a kid who was a strong candidate generally and a good fit for Wake specifically (in their judgment), usable as a Target.
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I think it really depends on the student’s profile. From real world data, Wake is a safety/likely school for strong students from strong schools.
SCOIR showed Wake is a likely for S26, and BC is a target, and everything else is either reach or far reach.
You have a great background and will be competitive everywhere. That being said, coming from MA is a negative because it’s such a competitive applicant pool. My S24 (also from MA) had a very similar background to you (including being full pay) with a slightly higher gpa and SAT and he was shut out at the Ivies. He is at UVA (where I think you have a good chance). He was totally unhooked. I see you are a legacy at Princeton— that typically only helps if you ED so that is something to keep in mind. Best of luck.
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because they are wrong. might get in though but that is very different from a safety.
No they cannot
I wouldn’t call Wake or Emory likely - but as I termed them, they are most likely.
OP is full pay. Both are need aware.
At Wake, 253 of 1389 got need aid per the last CDS.
At Emory, 575 of 1437.
These are rich kid schools and full pay is desired.
Tufts, not on your list, is another, that’s similar.
So OPs odds are better at these schools. I wouldn’t say likely - but better.
Syracuse, as their safety, is splendid for the desired majors but doesn’t fit the rest of the list - school type, etc. More party than the rest.
Wisconsin and Indiana (I’d prefer IU here) are also splendid large publics given the major.
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Among strong students - particularly at competitive high schools in NYC and New England - Wake Forest is often viewed as a “likely” or "safety”. That’s certainly been the perception at both my daughter’s and my son’s schools.
Its acceptance rate of 22–25% range is meaningfully higher - in some cases double or even triple - that of the most competitive/selective colleges.
That said, I think its a great option that continues to gain momentum and reputation. I would put it in the same general tier as schools like Indiana, William & Mary, Villanova - all strong, well-regarded colleges that offer outstanding opportunities.
I did visit UVA and like it a lot. I also appreciate all of your feedback. At my school I am seeing a lot of kids with similar high stats not getting into ED1 or 2 and no Dukes/Princetons. I know legacy gives a bump but I doubt my luck there. Another school I am into is Wash U which could be an ED2. Based on current stats of acceptances I am hoping to keep an ED strategy and try to figure out my chances but it all seems like a lottery so I want to get excited about other schools. Hearing about others results is so good to know.
Don’t pick ED based on I can get in. Pick ED based on I LOVE IT!!!
Have you been to WashU?
There’s so many great schools out there you can/will get into - including some on your list - and I’m not sure your final goal - law school, government, consulting, something else ?? But the where may matter less anyway - law school as an example.
Don’t game with ED. You have to be somewhere four years that you’ll love. A rank doesn’t equal loving a school day after day.
UVA and WashU as an example - two very different experiences, campuses, etc. It’s not - can I get into one - because you likely can get into both. But which would you better thrive personally?