If the admissions counselor told you that you are “fine” you probably are - especially if you showed him/her your transcript. Yet another reason to consider EA IMHO. And yes course rigor is one of the primary factors considered. But they want you to do well in your courses. If you do five AP’s or IB’s and get B’s and C’s where taking three would have given you mostly A’s (and maybe a B) then the latter is a smarter decision. It shows that you know how to plan your time and select challenges appropriately. Low grades can give the impression either that you were overwhelmed or blowing off your schoolwork. Obviously you don’t want to give the adcom either impression. That’s why it’s so important to do well in your schoolwork, ESPECIALLY during that tough junior year.
If your school is very rigorous - i.e., everyone does 5 HL’s during Junior year - then that will be a factor in your favor. Obviously the adcom is going to account for differences like that. Make sure your recommender (teacher or counselor) can speak to that.
You sound very smart so I wouldn’t be surprised if you got into UW or a school of comparable quality. Just make sure you have a great senior year!!! (tip: finish those college ap’s early on so you can get back to your studies. Most applications go live by early Aug. and the Common Ap. essay questions are available now, in case you were planning to apply to schools using that application).