@ucbalumnus pretty much nailed it. Your application is going to look at lot like the other applications they get. Most top students think that their essays are going to be stellar (and most are probably correct).
I don’t know if there are universities that recruit for lacrosse. I played a bit in high school and am very impressed by anyone that can play this game well (I never could). However, I will assume that it doesn’t serve as a “hook”. If there are schools that actively recruit for lacrosse, and if you are good enough to be recruited, then my estimate will be wildly too pessimistic.
I don’t think that your freshman year hurts much given that it wasn’t that bad, and you have a solid uptrend.
A significant number of students admitted at each of these top schools have some sort of “hook”, which you don’t seem to have (unless lacrosse counts). As such, I would guess that your chances are probably somewhere roughly around half the published percent of students admitted to each school.
Somewhere like McGill would be a safety for you, but if you are premed (I am guessing from your major plus volunteer time in a hospital) might not be a good match due to their grade deflation. For most very strong students their in-state public flagship (or #3 through #8 in California) might be a safety and would give them a good shot at medical school if that is your goal.