Chance Me to Johns Hopkins ED, Emory EA, Michigan, Bowdoin, PITT, UT-Austin, V Tech, CU-Boulder

You have hit upon it exactly. The in-state effect is why the percentage cited is likely much lower. For every UVA and William & Mary, there would be a Virginia Commonwealth or George Mason or Virginia Tech. And the matriculation data provided in the school’s most recent profile reflects this exact reality.