Does your school use Naviance or Scoir? If so, that’s the best resource for your chance information. That and your private school GC or CC should have the most accurate feedback.
Last year’s results at my D’s school were somewhat atypical… UNC acceptances way down but UVA acceptances were up.
Maybe I need to read your OP more closely. Did you say anything about being first gen? I see a possible legacy connection so I’m confused why posters are addressing first gen status.