That isn’t too low of a number at all.
A lot of families can’t even make the cost of their in-state flagship work, and that starts to become a problem in terms of accessing a quality education.
But you’re willing/able to pay the cost of your flagship, plus a differential for a demonstrably-“better” school OOS. That is 100% fair and reasonable. Not everybody can or should pay 70K, 80K, 90K/year and up for college. It’s okay to have a budget, even if it limits the options. Your child can only choose one college, and not every option has to be on the menu.
Soo… when you say in-state plus 10K, does that mean the in-state sticker price (which is surprisingly high - OU’s website estimates almost 38K/year for an in-state student living on campus) plus 10K, or does it mean 10K over a lower anticipated cost for OU? (It appears she would get $4K/year in auto-merit, and I don’t know if there’s anything need-based that would also come off the top?)
Another financial question that occurs to me… if her anticipated first-year aid is well and truly messed up by one-time income associated with the loss of her dad, would she consider planning a gap year to let that blow over, and start college when the FAFSA info is more advantageous? For example, she could do a “super-senior” year abroad with AFS, or an Americorps program like City Year… both of which would also scratch the “change of scene” itch. (ETA: the AFS program in China does accept students who have graduated, for a post-grad year: https://www.afsusa.org/programs/china-high-school/)
Have you run the NPC numbers for the full-need-met schools, based both on 2023 numbers, and also on anticipated 2024 numbers? Do schools like Columbia, Tufts, USC, and BU look affordable at all, even without the extra income that’s on the books for 2023?
Truly, it won’t limit her prospects if OU Honors turns out to be the financially-prudent choice. Debt, on the other hand, could be limiting in ways that she really can’t appreciate from her current perspective.