You’ve gotten some good “chancing” feedback already. It seems to me that Riverside is the realistic reach to be hoping for. It has a true business school, with a business analytics major, and your son’s GPA is solidly in range. I think you’re correct that UCB/UCLA/UCSD aren’t worth bothering with. Irvine, to me, is the one that’s worth taking a flyer at even though it’s unlikely. (Although I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that Irvine would be a “better” outcome than Riverside.)
Business Analytics at SJSU is not one of the more impacted business majors (source: Freshmen Impaction Results | Admissions ) so this seems like a good option.
Have you considered OOS schools that participate in WUE reciprocity, and thus would cost about the same as a UC? For example, UNR, U of Utah, and Colorado State all have solid business schools. Would any of these be more appealing to your son than the “safer” options on his current list?