My daughter has similar stats. We are in CA and the only in-state UC school (didn’t apply to Merced or riverside) she got into was Davis (lots of waitlists). She has solid ECs and better stats than her older sister who got into UCLA in 2020.
She did get into Michigan (off the waitlist) but will be attending Washington. She absolutely loved the vibe. FWIW her high school and others in our local area did not get a lot of acceptances this year to top UCs, Michigan and Washington but DID get more Ivy acceptances than they ever have. Go figure.
Admissions seems to now be such a crapshoot.