I understand the feeling… but the best you can do is develop a balanced list with likely, target, and reach schools, then just see where he gets in (and gets $$).
We spent the longest time on the likely category to find a safety school that S23 would be genuinely excited to attend.
For your list, note that UW does not look at the SAT score except in rare cases, so the strong SAT doesn’t do much for your son there. It’s a likely school as far as admission to the school as a whole, but as ucbalumnus mentioned, it wouldn’t be in the likely category for admission to the engineering school or CS.
UCSC also doesn’t look at the SAT score, so it may also be in the match category rather than likely (but you should calculate your UC GPA for that one).