With legacy and what you have written, you have an above average shot, perhaps 30 percent. The amount of the donation is not enough to put you into a special category beyond that.
You are strong on many things but so far not exceptional at anything yet. That might change over the next 18 months. Is your research on Arxiv yet? How well known is the intended journal? Are you a recruit able athlete? Also pay attention to science competitions.
Your recs should ideally be from your junior year teachers. Freshman teachers are too early.
Good luck.