Chances for a junior (Columbia, NYU, Barnard, Uchicago, Umichigan, Syracuse, Duke)

If your rank is good (top 10%) then Duke would be the most logical top choice. You can increase your chances further by applying binding ED. Michigan does not have ED (EA only). But I believe that Barnard and Columbia have ED. UChicago and NYU have ED2.

I know of someone whose father was a full professor at Duke (4.0/36 ACT) and got rejected. So it is not a slam dunk by any means. But it certainly will help.