No one here can read your essay or LOR, so it’s hard to say what impact they have. A vast majority of students feel their essays and recommendations are well above average so the reality is always an unknown.
I’m sure you’ve seen the MCS statistics - you’re below the 25th percentile on SAT, ACT, GPA. Grades are the top criteria and a 3.6.1 vs. an average of 3.92 is a significant hurdle to overcome. Exception application components can balance out those issues to some extent, but I’d have to say it’s a stretch. But no one knows the secret sauce that attracts an Adcom, so you’ll find out. I’d just suggest you be sure to have alternatives.