<p>On AoPS a while ago, I one user posted that if one qualifies for USAMO, her or his chances are approximately 50%. AoPSers tend to know what they’re talking about, but I’m not arguing it’s true. (It makes some sense, though. There are probably ~180 USAMO seniors, and MIT would probably accept ~100, since there are around 75 spots for maths majors. <a href=“Statistics & Reports | MIT Registrar”>Statistics & Reports | MIT Registrar; NOTE: I don’t know much about USAMO statistics or people that do both USAMO and USACO or USAPhO.) However, you could apply for RSI this summer. If you’re accepted, you can reasonably and slightly expect admission.</p>