<p>@DanielHendrycks
The people there on AoPS pay way too much attention on competition math. Problem solving is very important, but it’s a skill which takes a lifetime to develop. According to my friend’s father who worked as an admissions officer at MIT, most universities accept that so they don’t penalize non-competition takers a lot. Anyway, I think the 50% chance by qualifying for USAMO is very likely untrue. But yes, that, along with RSI or PRIMES or any other research program will increase his chances. </p>