Based on my very fallible judgment, this is how I would classify your current list (with the additions of IU and U. Mass that you mentioned in a later post:
Guaranteed (100%)
- IU Kelley
Extremely Likely (90+%)
- U. Mass
Likely (60-90%)
Possible (25-55%)
- Boston College
- NYU
- UVA
- U. Michigan
Unlikely (less than 25%) These are unlikely simply because there are so many more qualified applicants than there are spaces available. You may well get into some or all…but you could get into none. Due to the odds, these are classified as unlikely.
- U. Penn (14.9% ED rate)
- Harvard
- Duke
- Columbia
- MIT
- Princeton
- Stanford
- Yale
- UC Berkeley
- UNC
- UCLA
- UT-Austin
- Carnegie Mellon
- Washington University
Have you thought about Southern Methodist (SMU)? It has a strong business program, is in a large city, and is similarly sized to a number of the private institutions on your list. You’d also stand a good chance at some nice merit aid there. I would classify it as a likely for you. I also really like IU for you and with your stats you’d be an auto admit to Kelley.
Also, I would run the FAFSA family calculator as well as the NFC at some of the colleges (including U. Penn) to see what the colleges think that you family can pay for your college. Then see if your family can/will pay that amount, or if their number is less than what the colleges are expecting the family contribution to be. That will let you know if you need to be looking for merit aid, or if need-based aid will be sufficient to cover anything (or if your family is willing to be full-pay for $80k/year).
Once the budget is firmed up it will be much easier to offer suggestions.