Chances my 1470/4.0 daughter won't get in anywhere she applied?

Fair. But….there are tons of students who post here thinking their parents can afford anything (based on vague/hopeful statements by the parents) and it turns out not to be true.

This OP is a parent who knows her own finances well. But many posters here have seen students who are optimistically naive about what their family can actually afford, and I think that some of that tends to carry over even when it shouldn’t.

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