Chances of acceptance?

Colleges & Universities University of Wisconsin
26

This part, @Madison85:

“If I can get accepted there is always a way to work out finances. Possibly ROTC, my savings, borrowing from a family member, or even private scholarships. That net price calculator also overestimates through the allowance for transportation, miscellaneous, etc.”

Pretty sure OP realizes that UW-Madison is a stretch financially but his/her point about reputation is valid. If one projects their permanent income to be notably improved by attending UW-Madison, then the debt may well be worth it.

However, OP’s original question had to do with the chances for acceptance. That should be addressed in detail first and foremost (IMHO) because it could easily put to bed the remaining question of finances. So let’s look at the numbers to see if we can address this question in a way that helps OP determine whether or not to apply.

  1. GPA: UW-Madison no longer publishes any meaningful stats on it’s admission page. However, this information is available on the Common Data Set (https://apir.wisc.edu/publisherssurvey/CDS_2015-2016.pdf):

"Percentage of all enrolled, degree-seeking, first-time, first-year (freshman) students who had high school grade- point averages within each of the following ranges (using 4.0 scale). Report information only for those students from whom you collected high school GPA.

Percent who had GPA of 3.75 and higher 76.1
Percent who had GPA between 3.50 and 3.74 17.9
Percent who had GPA between 3.25 and 3.49 4.6
Percent who had GPA between 3.00 and 3.24 0.98
Percent who had GPA between 2.50 and 2.99 0.35
Percent who had GPA between 2.0 and 2.49 0
Percent who had GPA between 1.0 and 1.99 0
Percent who had GPA below 1.0 0
100%

Average high school GPA of all degree-seeking, first-time, first-year (freshman) students who submitted GPA: 3.85"

OP’s GPA of 3.5 is notably lower than the average and in the bottom 5% of admitted students. OP is not an URM, first-generation, or other hook (the first-gen. question was addressed on the UMN thread can’t recall if addressed here). Therefore, OP cannot expect to be admitted based on GPA w/o at least hitting the ACT out of the ballpark.

  1. (Also from CDS) Standardized Test Scores: Here is the breakdown for ACT:
                          25th Percentile         75th Percentile

ACT Composite 27 31
ACT Math 26 31
ACT English 26 32
ACT Writing 8 9

OP is fine on the Math (28) but below the 25% for English (24). Overall ACT is just shy of the 25th percentile. OP cannot expect to be admitted based on ACT w/o at least providing a very strong GPA from rigorous coursework in AP/IB/Honors, etc. and possibly some high AP scores to offset.

  1. Course load: OP is taking a solid college-prep course load but doesn’t have AP Calc, English, Math, or Science. Not a deal-breaker but the absence of such isn’t helpful to the application. The dual credit may help - not sure.

  2. Other - EC’s fine. Hopefully rec. letters fine. Essay - unknown but, personally, I wonder just how carefully UW-Madison reads 33,000 essays.

  3. Residency: In the CDS they claim NOT to consider geographic status in their decisions. Regents recently lifted the limit in order to keep enrollments up in light of fewer projected residents of college-age. This helps OP.

Conclusion: UW-Madison will be a reach and the stats could likely prevent the other positive aspects from being considered. UW doesn’t admit to it’s various colleges but to the university as a whole so everyone is considered for the same pool. Like many state colleges, they get a LOT of applications - 33,000 in this case - so they do some pretty quick sorting at the outset and GPA/test scores are going to be the primary criteria for that sorting. OP is best off looking for schools where he/she falls within the 50% range on stats. IMHO, any college where the admitting ACT range is about 23 - 28 is going to be a solid match.