50/50 based on OSU continuing it’s upward trend in the applicant pool. OSU looks at an unweighted gpa, so it’s a little hard to tell. If your school weights APs at 6, then more toward denied.
I’d suggest you follow this advice “Freshmen applicants for the Columbus campus are strongly encouraged to complete and submit all parts of their admission application by Columbus’ November 1 Early Action deadline and to check Marion as their alternate choice campus on the Common Application to ensure scholarship consideration at Marion if they are denied admission to Columbus.” This branch is closest to Columbus and has a lot of scholarships. http://osumarion.osu.edu/students/financial-aid/marion-scholarship-information.html Alternatively, you could make the branch your first choice and the merit aid will bump up by an additional $500. The Marion branch does not have dorms, but they do have private student housing (private bedroom suite style living with common living area and kitchen http://www.annexofmarion.com/) at new housing complex with club house, etc within walking distance along with dining (BW3, Panera, etc) and shopping (Kroger, Walmart, TJ maxx, etc). Tuition is less, housing better and cheaper. Lots of merit aid. How close are you to your sibling? I have two kids one on main, the younger at a branch who visits main campus (big concert tonight) frequently on weekends. Kinda the best of both worlds (limited distractions M-F and access to parties, football games, etc on weekends).
There are other branches, Lima and Mansfield which have dorms, so you may want to look at program offerings before deciding which branch you put as your alternate choice.