Honestly, it’s hard to say.
Just like college admissions, there are so many qualified students in the applicant pool.
BS applicants are usually a self-selective bunch. Most are legacies or go-getters. Most are top of their class. Most are accomplished or at least ambitious.
I’ve helped dozens of students learn more about Exeter, toured over 20 families, and chatted with almost 40 prospective students. They were all amazing students with brilliant ECs and academics, yet only an exceptionally small handful of them got it. It was sad to see, but not a surprise to see.
I think you shouldn’t worry about “Chance Me” posts. Just put your best foot/face forward and you got this! No point in comparing yourself to others and having others, outside the admission committee, judging you. What you should focus on is how fit you are to the school and how fit the school is for you.