<p>@celesteroberts Thanks for posting this information. I held out a small sliver of hope that there was no way a student could have this info. I guess I have to accept the proverbial last nail. How could DC be the only one to stay at 224? Congrats to all the parents on this thread whose child made their state cut. The numbers don’t seem to credibly support DC being the sole highest cut off but not much left to say. Except thanks for the posting @celesteroberts </p>
<p>Does anyone know whether Illinois is for sure 215? </p>
<p>@celesteroberts, I remember that too. I had no contact with the student with the booklet, but all the cut-off scores reported from it turned out to be correct.</p>
<p>@pom2015 Percentages are only a valid comparison if the number of test-takers was roughly the same in the 2012 and 2013. Is the number of test-takers roughly the same both years? And the cutoffs can be very hard to predict based on the scores in “states” where there are only a relatively small number of semi-finalists each year. The sample size is just too small. DC is pretty low with only 61 last year.</p>
<p>Oh man, I was not privy to this information, @greatfallsmom, or I would never have made my post. I’m so sorry. I feel terrible about this. I should have left this to the experts and not given my opinion. All I can do right now is offer you big virtual hugs. This sucks.</p>
<p>greatfallsmom, it is possible that she misread the DC number. I’ll hope so for your sake. Sorry to give possibly bad news. I don’t think the principal is supposed to give the book to students, but if it is a school that seldom gets NMFs and never more than one at a time, they may not know the correct procedures.</p>
<p>@suzy100 Thanks so much. The predictions have been spot on for every other state - some states like LA even went down when they weren’t predicted to. The number of test takers were roughly the same, and it had been a 3 pt jump (MA took that same jump and went down 1pt this year). Any other state, including the one we live in (VA), he would have made it. Appreciate the thoughts. It’s going to be a long night. :(</p>
<p>Given the tone right now I’m hesitant to post this but in the interest of sharing information I can confirm that a score of 209 makes the cutoff in Nebraska. Confirmed by Principal. Do not know the absolute cutoff. </p>
<p>Congrats @HScout - just because there’s kids that don’t make it over the line, it should never take away from the kids like yours who do. </p>
<p>I see the posts and still I, too, don’t understand how it can be in student’s hands. Is the student the only SF at his/her school and got the booklet from the principal who was not much interested in it and offered the student to take it?? It totally doesn’t make sense to me. </p>
<p>@HScout Thanks for weighing in! That really lowered NE’s cutoff. </p>
<p>Update with NE</p>
<p>States that still need to be finalized:
AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, GA, HI, ID, IA,
ME, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY</p>
<p>AL<= 208, post 1963 (school notification), -3 from last year
AK=?
AZ=(<= 213, post 2045 school counselor)
AR=?
CA=(<= 222, post 1996, e-mail from school)
CO=(<= 218, post 1510 HSL)
CT<= 220 (post 1947)
DE=?
DC=(<= 223, post 2209, friend)
FL= 211, post 1916, school admin., -3
GA =( 213<= GA <=215, post 1778, info from counselor, friends)
HI=(<=215, post 1873, Dean of Academics)
ID=(<=211, post 2058, student report, unknown communication)
IL=215 (post 2077, per high school admin) -1 from last year
IN= 212, post 1700 (per GC of friend) -3 from last year
IA=(<= 229, post 1792, notified by high school)
KS= 213, post1733, told by principal, -3 from last year
KY= 210, post 1406 (per high school with many qualifiers) -1 from last year
LA= 208, post 1803, 1856, told by principal
ME=?
MD=221 (posts 2114, 2163, 220 didn’t make it, 221 did) -2 from last year
MA=(<=223, post 2283, GC)
MI= (<= 213, posts 2224, told by principal)
MN= (<= 218, post 1835, 1849, told by counselor)
MS=(<=210, post 2041, school?)
MO=(<=212, post 1937, school)
MT=?
NE=(<=209, post 2346, school)
NV=208 (post 2088/2089, told by GC) -4 from last year
NH=?
NJ=?
NM=(<=212, posts 2117,2142, official letter from school)
NY=(<= 218, post 1669, school)
NC=(<= 215, post 1988, informed by GC)
ND=?
OH=213, post 1756, told by principal, -2 from last year
OK=(<= 210, post 1796, student qualified, unknown communication)
OR= (<=222, post 1619, college counselor)
PA (<= 216, post 2003, principal notification) -1 from last year
RI=?
SC=(<= 213, post 1525, school emailed student)
SD=?
TN= (<=212, post 1809, son’s friend)
TX=218, post 1807, high school counselor, -1 from last year
UT=(<=211, post 1983, principal and GC)
VT=(<=224, post 1819, unknown)
VA (<= 221, post 2167, DC Urban Moms report)
WA= (<= 218, post 2157, student reportedly made it with that score)
WV=?
WI= (<=209, post 2207, GC/friends)
WY=?</p>
<p>SE Boarding Schools <= 218, school counselor</p>
<p>Commended (national cutoff) = 201</p>
<p>I take a brief hiatus, and suddenly there’s all this talk about a booklet with cutoff scores? How is that possible when NMSF doesn’t even publicly release the cutoff scores? I personally am skeptical about it, and I think it’s probably just a prank. </p>
<p>@greatfallsmom As for the DC cutoff score, I think that it will go down, because all of the other states went down too, even CA which has one of the largest graduating class. Please don’t give up greatfallsmom. We’re all right here for you! </p>
<p>@greatfallsmom That student’s story sounds funny to me. Why would a principal give a student the booklet? The booklet must come with a warning that the information is confidential until Sept. 10. Perhaps the student looked through the booklet in the school office and told you what they thought they remembered. You just won’t know for sure until Sept. 10. I’m hoping that the student is wrong and that the DC cutoff is no higher than 223. Big virtual hugs from me too.</p>
<p>Thanks so much @onlythebest13 and @NJMom97. None of this makes sense to me -I feel like I set myself (and by extension my son) for a huge disappointment by looking at numbers and patterns, etc. I guess this happened last year with a student to, and all, the info checked out, so obviously HS Principals do get such a book. I guess I should buy a Powerball ticket this week - the chance of living in the one state that would stay at the same level when surrounded by everyone else dropping is like hitting some unlucky lottery 
Sorry to be such a downer…</p>
<p>@NJMom97 By the way, the student was given the booklet to take home so they had it in front of them they said. Since the student themselves made the SF cut, I guess hoping the student isn’t a good reader is out 
Do you know if your child made the cut yet? Hope so </p>
<p>Thanks @greatfallsmom. My hopes and prayers are with you. And thanks @onlythebest13 for compiling everything for us! </p>
<p>Homeschool ‘principal’ in Indiana here. TO CLARIFY: I received 4 pages. First page congratulates me that my senior made semifinalist status. It gives me my login information and tells me not to notify anyone but my student and to tell her to keep it confidential. Then there are two other pages stapled together. First page talks about the public announcement: To Homeschool Parent teachers RE: Public announcement of Semi Finalists in the 2015 national merit program. “The names of approx 16000 sf and their high schools will be emailed to news media for public announcement on Wed, Sept. 10, 2014. If you are contacted by news medial for additional information about your son or daughter who has been designated a sf, please emphasize that the information is not to be made public before Sept. 10. Attached is a press release…” The next page is the press release. The fourth page is the important one. It states my student’s name, her birthday, and her CR, M, W scores and her selection index. Her sf ID# and her selection unit. </p>
<p>All this to say, why would there be a book? Why would NMSC send a book with cutoff scores this early? Why would they notify a principal in Indiana what scores were in Ohio or MA?–his early anyway. The principals can figure out the cutoff score based on what the student’s scores are on this sheet but I challenge the student that said there was a book. It doesn’t add up… maybe later, but not now.</p>
<p>@isaelijohjac According to some other posters, a student did get a hold of such a booklet last year and since they said the cut off scores ended up all being correct, the student must have posted them before the list was public. You must be so proud of your daughter - congrats :)</p>
<p>@greatfallsmom If I am missing something tell me but when you look on their website they don’t ever list the cutoff scores. Why on earth would they publish a book with the scores so early AND mail it out? I am guessing but the book from a couple of years ago was published later possibly, and are we certain it actually came from NMSC? </p>
<p>@greatfallsmom Well, the student said they were given the booklet to take home, but that’s the part I find hard to believe.</p>
<p>My daughter’s school will not tell me anything!</p>