<p>All this talk about r2 and correlations reminds me of my Econometrics class in college. Apparently I used to have the math skills to figure this stuff out, but I don’t anymore! 8-| </p>
<p>lessismore (page 27) brings up an important issue for us to help future parents. We need to keep copies of the NMSC report from each year - or at least the page 23 with number of NMSF and Commended. I will work at getting the annual report numbers into this thread for future reference. I grabbed a hard copy of page 23 back in the fall but didn’t think to save it to my desk top.
Thank you, pmagoo, for the report on High School graduates. Have only taken a quick look, but it’s an interesting report.</p>
<p>University of Oklahoma has the highest number of NMS. If your student has received something from them recently, does that mean they are regarded as making the cutoff for their state? Oklahoma pays full tuition and room and board if an NMS goes there.</p>
<p>Thank you pmagoo. I appreciate your taking the time to look at South Dakota’s numbers. I wish everyone good luck!</p>
<p>@mom2bga, no, receiving something from a school with info regarding their NMS offering does not mean they have made the cut off, although come late August the colleges may beat your HS to congratulating them on it, but pretty sure schools do not have cutoff information yet either. </p>
<p>@mom2bga, I agree with @mytwods. The mail doesn’t mean they’ve made the cutoff. But I asked the question above - just what info can colleges get from College Board? @celesteroberts replied with an interesting link! I’ve looked at it and can’t really tell what data the colleges can get as to the PSAT, but I did see a sample spreadsheet that indicates that colleges can get names, addresses, AP scores and SAT Subject scores. Since that was just a sample, perhaps colleges can get a similar spreadsheet showing PSAT scores, although for at least some of the “products” colleges can purchase from College Board, the website is clear that student’s test scores are not included. </p>
<p>My guess is that PSAT scores area available to colleges for a price. Then it is up to the college what they do with that data. FWIW, my son has a 219 in Texas, and he is getting lots of college mail specifically mentioning scholarships for NMFs. I only wish that really meant something!</p>
<p>Can someone comment on Maryland’s cutoff score? DD is at 221 so we need at least 2pt drop to make the cut - it was at 223 this year (Class of 2014). Thank you. </p>
<p>@Barfly, here’s better link. They’ve changed the layout so this isn’t directly accessible from that original link I sent. There is better info on this page and also the places you can jump to on the sidebar.</p>
<p><a href=“College Board - SAT, AP, College Search and Admission Tools”>College Board - SAT, AP, College Search and Admission Tools;
<p>I’ve taken all the data from California in 2013 and compared it to the 2012 data. Check it out here for averages, percentage increases/decreases, and some charts. Enjoy! </p>
<p>Looks like the qualifying score will be lower this year!</p>
<p><a href=“https://docs.google.com/a/crystal.csus.org/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgBs8MwUOwuWdHRKVEZydmVvWVBEdF9XSkY0cl9oREE#gid=0”>https://docs.google.com/a/crystal.csus.org/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgBs8MwUOwuWdHRKVEZydmVvWVBEdF9XSkY0cl9oREE#gid=0</a></p>
<p>Eastcoast1, I think MD is in for a drop. Since MD’s test-taker #s jump around, and had a big decrease(7.5%)this year, I looked at # of students instead of % in the ranges. Math was up, but CR/W down by more. With its high cut-offs, it is sufficient to look at 70-80 range. </p>
<p>This year CR+M+W in 75-80= 1498, 70-74= 2800. </p>
<p>Last year(cut score 223) those numbers were 1782/3308. </p>
<p>In 2010, cut score 221, which had math numbers virtually identical to this year in both ranges, the totals were 1842/2412, more in 75-80 than this year, fewer in 70-74. </p>
<p>In 2011, cut score 219, it was 1235/2801.</p>
<p>I didn’t look back further, or feed into any stat programs, but it seems like MD could easily have a 2 point and possibly a 3 point drop.</p>
<p>I agree re Maryland being in for a drop in the cut-off. One of the clearest States in terms of reduced number of scores in both the 75-80 and 70-80 ranges. How much of a drop perhaps is less clear, but I’ve got my fingers crossed for 2 or more points for Eastcoast1’'s sake.
Interestingly, Illinois, Michigan and Ohio are three States (and the only three States that I’ve looked at so far) where my admittedly imperfect analysis shows a possible slight increase. Nothing too dramatic (and OH has some mixed signals), but still possibility of perhaps a point up and no real case for a drop.</p>
<p>Someone mentioned that there are people who enter the NMS competition with only their SAT scores. I have a on-the-edge PSAT score(219) but a pretty good SAT score(2290). Is it possible for me to enter the competition with my SAT score instead of PSAT score? </p>
<p>Are we having fun yet?</p>
<p>fairyfantasy - Unfortunately, you can’t do that. The only way to enter with the SAT score is when you have missed taking the PSAT due to illness or some other reason. Congratulations, though! Both those scores are wonderful. You should be proud!</p>
<p>Not 100% sure, but I think you can only use SAT scores if you don’t take the PSAT for some very good reason (sickness, death). See below.
<a href=“http://nationalmerit.org/entering.php#miss”>http://nationalmerit.org/entering.php#miss</a></p>
<p>@ProcrastiDad and celesteroberts - Thank you both and your analysis. I can’t believe we have to wait 6 more months!!! Crazy!</p>
<p>Cutoff for alternate test request has passed. I believe that the deadline was in mid November.</p>
<p>This relates to Connecticut. My multivariate regression result is showing a CT cutoff of 219, a drop of 2 points compared to 2012. I used % of students in the three components of the test to predict the cutoff. I believe that is more accurate than using the actual number of students, because the population can and does vary over time.</p>
<p>Yes, CT going down. By how much, not so sure.</p>
<p>Snowberry42 , Very logical analysis. Any prediction for NJ cutoff? I am not great with stats to make a prediction</p>