<p>I looked at WA quickly. Last year for the class of 2014 the cutoff was 220. There was a big increase in the number of students who took the test for the class of 2015, but the number of students in the top two brackets 75-80 and 70-74 is very similar with a very slight drop. I’d expect the cutoff to be similar to last year with a possible 1 point drop. So many unknowns that making an accurate prediction is difficult.</p>
<p>I am concerned on this thread because so many states seem to be headed for a fall in the cutoff. Does that mean that there has to be a rise for other states? I am so deep into this now that I am getting more confused!</p>
<p>No, not at all @mom2bga. Think of it as if it as being graded on a curve. They want the top 1% of graduating seniors and will make the cutoff so that they get the top 1% or 16,000 Semi-Finalists that they want. And, they do it state by state which is why the cutoffs vary. Other state results actually have little bearing on your state as they will determine the number of semi-finalists that they need for each state and then set the cut-off in each state to achieve that as closely as possible. </p>
<p>I’m predicting 222 for California this year based off the data. Scores lower across the board, percentage of scorers in the 75-80 and 70-80 range all lower, with the exception of mathematics. I think we be absolutely certain score is 223 or lower, no way it goes up. </p>
<p>Thank you so much, woods mom.</p>
<p>This is a small point, but it’s a bit less than one-half of a percent of graduating high school seniors:
<a href=“WICHE report highlights decline in high school graduates and growing diversity”>http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2013/01/11/wiche-report-highlights-decline-high-school-graduates-and-growing-diversity</a></p>
<p>The most recent Official Student Guide to the PSAT/NMSQT states on page 6: “NMSC designates Semifinalists on a state representational basis. . . . Using the latest data available, an allocation of Semifinalists is determined for each state, based on the state’s percentage of the national total of high school graduating seniors.” Does anyone know from what source NMSC obtains “the latest data available.” Thank you!</p>
<p>Some states could see even top 3% of test takers if not more making the cut. Each state is allocated a specific number of seats based on the graduating high school senior percentage from that State. However if the state is allocated 100 NMSFs but only 3000 take the test for example, 3.3% could make the cut in that specific state.</p>
<p>Just using those questionable numbers from the annual report, it looks like 2013 had the highest percentage in Utah with 2.62%, and the lowest in DC with 0.62%. These percentages are semi-finalists compared to program entrants, per that annual report. PA clocks in at just under 1%.</p>
<p>Texas has a low percentage as well due to having over 200,000 junior test takers. We get about 1300 NMSFs. I tried to discourage 198,700 other kids from taking the test, but no luck.</p>
<p>Unless I’m missing something, the report seems to indicate a “projected change” through 2020. While I appreciate having even a hint of what NMC might be looking at, I don’t think that all that much info can be gained here. Number of NMSF for each state has to be based on what is happening now, not a projection for that many years forward. The report indicates graduation rates were flat in 2011. I can’t imagine that much of a decline for each state in only a 2 year span. This projection would indicate that future test takers might have a harder time making the cut, but I’m not so certain that the majority of this year’s kids will see much change in the number of NMSF, although it is certainly possible for an individual state to see changes. Does anyone have a list that shows the number of NMSF for each state for the past several years? The only info I have found is the annual report for last year.</p>
<p>I have the 2011-12 NMSC Annual report numbers for each state. NMC does not archive past year reports. A parent on this thread called NMSC about 5-6 days ago and confirmed that they do not archive reports. I promised to post the 2011-12 NMSC Annual Report numbers from page 7 but have been away and had not gotten to it.</p>
<p>We need to keep these results for future statistical analysis.</p>
<p>REMEMBER: THESE ARE RESULTS FOR TEST TAKERS IN OCTOBER 2010 FOR CLASS OF 2012</p>
<p>State…2012 program entrants…Commended… Semifinalists.</p>
<p>Alabama…13,168…241…214
Alaska…2,092…53…39
Arizona…18,485…446…312
Arkansas…6,384…43…143
California…167,485…6327…2001
Colorado…20,001…526…229
CT…30,417…741…218
DE…6,326…122…45
DC…4,391…207…58
FL…67,659…1418…781
GA…40,145…1105…423
HA…7,395…124…70
ID…5,761…131…86
IL…41,258…1563…716
IN…34,698…585…326
IA…8,384…169…179
KS…10,155…242…157
KY…11,250…246…199
LA…11,868…139…201
ME…12,556…147…83
MD…43,828…1392…350
MA…48,280…1815…353
MI…30,268… 558…566
MN…21,964…626…324
MS…5,985…38…136
MO…13,650…424…328
MT…4,449…44…57
NE…6,141…95…108
NV…7,791…86…90
NH…7,604…157…76
NJ…67,402…2274…526
NM…8,751…98…92
NY…146,049…2997…968
NC…44,839…946…407
ND…1,824…4…32
OH…49,918…1123…633
OK…8,155…153…190
OR…15,295…375…193
PA…74,195…1456…744
RI…5,738…91…55
SC…17,003…202…207
SD…2,514…23…42
TN…13,647…497…287
TX…198,169…3391…1237
UT…5,381…115…152
VT…4,137…102…43
VA…51,726…1472…433
WA…31,749…1059…308
WV…3,733…15…79
WI…19,476…317…353
WY…1,429…2…27
OTHER
SELECTION
UNITS…20,838…1124…302</p>
<hr>
<p>TOTAL…1,501,806…37,646…16,178 </p>
<p>The annual report on NMSC’s website right now is the results of the test taken in Oct. 2011 for the
Class of 2013. The results above are for the Class of 2012. </p>
<p>Updated for new data.
(Spot-checked but not carefully proofread.)</p>
<p>TEST TAKERS IN OCTOBER 2010 FOR CLASS OF 2012 2013 test - class of 2014</p>
<p>State…2012 entrants. 2012 Commended. 2012 Semifinalists 2014 entrants 2014 commended 2013 SF.</p>
<p>AL………13,168…241…214……………11,752…….… 236…………… 215
AK……2,092…53…….39 ………….2,190…………22………………41
AZ………18,485…446…312…………19,301….…….460………………298
AR………6,384…43…143……….6,152…………….33…………….132
CA………167,485…6327…2001………168,137………6732……………1922
CO………20,001…526…….229………19,293…………475……….….…226
CT…30,417…741…….218………. 30,806………….859……………202
DE…6,326…122………45………….6,896………….102………………43
DC…4,391…207………58…………3,744….……229………………61
FL…67,659…1418…781…………66,423……….1313……….…826
GA…40,145…1105…423….……35,312…………997…………484
HI…7,395…124…….70…………7,025…………111……………70
ID…5,761…131…….86………….6,327…….……90…….…….90<br>
IL…41,258…1563…716…………38,576……1530……….……724
IN…34,698…585…326………33,351…………593….…………337
IA…8,384…169…179………8,005……………148……………172
KS…10,155…242…157……….9,748…………280……………153
KY…11,250…246…199………10,725…………207……….……219
LA…11,868…139…201…………12,186………185….……….211
ME…12,556…147………83………….9,456…….…106……………80
MD…43,828…1392…….350…………44,193………1451…….……325
MA…48,280…1815…353…………48,146……….1823…………354
MI………30,268…………… 558……566…………28,560…431……….…562
MN……………21,964…626…….324………20,233………653……………307
MS…5,985…38…136………6,247………….50……………138
MO…13,650………424………328….……13,418………370……………324
MT…4,449………44………57… ……4,060…………21……….……55
NE…6,141…95…….108…………6,137…………83……………101
NV…7,791…86………90……………7,744…….……92…….……94
NH…7,604…157………76…….….7,696…….….156…………….78
NJ…67,402…2274…526………….65,860………2473…………493
NM…8,751…98…….92……….….8,544….….…68…………95
NY…146,049…2997…968…………138,591………2767………1060
NC…44,839…946…407………….44,904……….856……….424
ND………………….1,824…………………….4……………32……….…1825…………….0….……….34
OH…49,918…1123…633……….47,709…………1128…………635
OK…8,155…153…190………….7,903….……133…………194
OR…15,295…375…193…………14,711……….381…….…178
PA…74,195…1456…744…………70,222…….…1527…………692
RI…5,738…91………55………….5,105………….82…………….55
SC…17,003…202…207…………16,242………222…………205
SD…2,514…23…….42……………2,508………17……….……41
TN…13,647…497………287……………15,225…………410………….322
TX…198,169…3391…….1237…………197,010………3498…….….1348
UT…5,381…115………152….…….5,807……….82………….152
VT…4,137…102…43…………3,868……….…99…………42
VA…51,726…1472………433….….48,122…………1478…………382
WA…31,749…1059…….…308…….….33,515……….1026……….…333
WV…3,733…15…79…………. 3,546…………….0……………79
WI…19,476…317………353…………17,926….….280…………331
WY…1,429…2…27…………1,260….……0….……….28
OTHER
SELECTION
UNITS…20,838…1124…….302…….….20,079………1181…….……312</p>
<p>TOTAL…1,501,806…37,646……16,178……1,462,311……….37,546…….16,276</p>
<p>DC is 1.6% (61/3744). DE is .62%. For Class of 2013.</p>
<p>Can someone explain the rationale of state wise allocation of NMSF numbers. There is so much of discrepancy from state to state. As an example FL has 800 plus NMSF out of 48k plus entrants where as for the same year NJ 500 NMSF out of 65000 entrants. Hope there is a cogent reason which I have overlooked </p>
<p>@1025jerseyboy – Number of test takers is irrelevant to the state allocation of NMSF. The number of NMSF allocated to each state is based on the ratio of the number of high school graduates in that state to the total in the country as that state’s fraction of the approximately 16000 semifinalists.</p>
<p>Since the scores necessary to get NMSF are mostly in the 99% (a few states may be 97 or 98%) most people just don’t care about the PSAT except, possibly, as a practice test for the SAT. And the 99%'ers are either looking at the Ivy type schools that don’t give a fig about NMF (and don’t give a dime for it) or the other half or so of the 99%'ers that are looking for a full ride school. Either way, it is 16K kids out of approximately 1.5million test takers that even slightly care about the results. Commended students basically get bragging rights but need to make sure their SAT/ACT scores are stellar ( as do NMSF) so that they get into their schools of choice. I think the PSAT will need to get more relevant (as per changes in the SAT) or NMSC will need to add mega more $$$ to the program to get increased participation rates and to make this a test that has real value. I foresee participation rates dropping as a consequence of the lack of current value and in addition, a significant number of colleges are going to a ‘no testing’ requirement for admission, so that really hurts the PSAT (as well as testing in general).</p>
<p>Just in case anyone thinks I forgot the reason for this forum - I am still projecting lower cutoffs across the board except for in the hyper competitive Middle Atlantic states, MA included. National median numbers show flat scores in Math from 2012 to 2013 test takers but the hyper competitive states are not seeing that trend, they are talking about larger numbers of top math scorers, so that could skew the 99% numbers upward. I am pretty convinced about lower cutoff scores for PA and remain hopeful for PAmom and other PA families and really look forward to the letters from NMSC that come in April for the high scorers.</p>
<p>Numbersfun, would you have time to make a prediction for TN? </p>
<p>I don’t know TN or the history and wouldn’t want to make any guess other than the generic lower cutoffs. There have been some great statistical analysis done by others, maybe they will take it on.</p>
<p>I have a question: How much money should one expect to receive from the scholarships if he or she qualifies for the finalist (and I heard that most people do)?
Also, does the actual score matter in decisions for finalist? For example, would someone with 220 be judged on the same level as someone with 235 (or some significantly higher score, assuming they both got semif)? thxc</p>