<p>Acceptance rates exhibit a race to the bottom as more students apply. For most institutions, the number of spots has stayed relatively constant. So while supply is pretty constant, demand has picked up. But the key question is what is driving demand?</p>
<p>My view is that it’s a function of many students applying to a blanket of institutions coupled with more individuals applying to colleges. For example, 1990 had the largest cohort of individuals born and so when those individuals applied to college, there was a surge across the board (e.g. 2008).</p>
<p>But there are other factors that play a role. All institutions market their universities. Some have expanded more globally or in different areas of the country.</p>
<p>Others have actually switched to a common application (Columbia did this and witnessed a massive surge of applicants).</p>
<p>U of Chicago did something similar. What’s interesting about U of Chicago is that they have those “quirky” essays. It’s very possible their acceptance rate was 45% 10 years ago. Indeed, circa 2007/2008, U of Chicago’s acceptance rate was around the same as institutions such as Northwestern and Tufts. And last year, their acceptance rate was around 16%. </p>
<p>U of Chicago and Tufts are both known for those kinds of quirky essays which traditionally had limited an applicant pool. But with a rising demand for college and the proliferation of the common app, this has created a large surge in applications. Lucky for U of Chicago, people have likely become accustomed to their quirky essays.</p>
<p>On the flip-side, take an institution like Boston College. They introduce an essay component this year which includes a 250 word prompt. Really, no big deal. Yet the number of applicants dropped significantly (26%). For one essay! One really short essay! That’s insane. </p>
<p>Perceptually, these institutions seem way more selective. But they were already selective to begin with. So when you have a bunch of applicants (and assuming a good chunk are qualified on a numbers basis (GPA, SAT)) then what you have are basically intangibles setting someone apart. And this is highly subjective and can be dependent on a lot of things. </p>
<p>So as top institutions focus more on the intangibles (and perhaps even giving more weight to those things) then this creates a lot of confusion for students (resulting in the myriad of excuses or just utter confusion). Even if someone gets into an institution that you think wasn’t as good of an applicant, that’s a very anecdotal / biased perspective. In aggregate (e.g. on average - you know, what matters more), the quality of students in these top institutions is improving (e.g. the number in the top 10% of their class, the average SAT scores, etc.).</p>
<p>I don’t think many things have fundamentally changed. I just think that the notion that high scores and grades were the golden ticket has always been a flawed notion. And I think this is becoming more evident for people who now are just settling for “it’s a crap shoot.”</p>
<p>In all probability, selective institutions likely prefer dynamic students versus static students. That’s not a shocker. But there are still individuals that can’t seem to fathom that.</p>