Art makes predictions, but it takes a while. I believe last year’s first projection was published on January 31. I agree it may be later based on the added 1/26 test session.
Given the known issues with last year’s indices, the expectation is that states that dropped 3+ points last year will probably go back up at least two. Only the top 5 or so states that only dropped by one may remain steady or go up by one.
Unfortunately, that includes Tennessee. The recent trend is 218,218, 219, 219, 215. I would expect at least 217, if not 218. Illinois at 220 is indeed on the bubble.
Coronavirus and Alternate Entry may skew things in an unknown way, but Art’s projection of rebound/increases factored that in.