At the regional audition held at my d’s high school, the number of MT auditioners has doubled over the past 3-4 years and the slots fill up a month earlier despite the addition of a registration fee (it used to be free). It is definitely more competitive than when my d attended. Three years ago, only a handful of attendees were from more than 50 miles away, now about 20-25 percent travel more than 100+ miles to attend.
There are more MT applicants now than in the past.
There are more MT Programs than in the past.
Applicants are applying to a greater number of programs than they did in the past.
I think that is all true.
I don’t agree with this statement, however:
I do not believe it was fairly easy three years ago to get into a competitive MT program! For that matter, it wasn’t easy when my own kid applied in 2004-2005 season. Back when she applied, the acceptance rate to all of her BFA in MT programs ranged from 2.5% to 9% (that is not easy!). I distinctly recall in her year the acceptance rate for MT at CMU was 2.5%, Penn State 5%, NYU/Tisch/CAP21 6%, BOCO approx. 9%. All of her programs had single digit acceptance rates. So, even if audition numbers are up now compared to back then (and I think they are), it was still very competitive then too.
My D applied to 8 programs for MT. Today, I’d advise her to apply to about 12.
A well crafted appropriate and balanced list is essential and not all college applicants craft the best list for themselves (I say this in my observations of college lists my students come up with on their own).
I believe a truly competitive candidate (which not all MT applicants are) should not get shut out entirely with a balanced and appropriate list of colleges, in the range of about 12 or so schools. That is not true of every applicant. But not every applicant is truly a contender at the schools they put on their list. That is even true with non-MT applicants. Not everyone is realistic in crafting an appropriate college list for themselves.
In my work in this field, and just as an observer with those whom I know, I have not seen a truly competitive applicant who has a well balanced appropriate college list for themselves, be shut out of all their schools. Let’s remember, too, you only need one. 
Agreed with @soozievt that it’s never been easy to get into an MT program. It is absolutely a product of a balanced list and a competitive candidate…and part of “competitive” is whether ( if) you fit into the structured cohort that the program wants…for example, no program wants a cohort overloaded with leggy blond sopranos! I read with interest the post that said that a coach encouraged a candidate to apply to way more schools than the candidate wanted. We didn’t use a coach, so I can’t say I know what I’m talking about, but I wonder if the coaches are fanning the flames here. They are doing this to make money, and the more successful they are at getting kids placed, the more fame they will achieve and the more money they’ll make. So it behooves them to have their clients apply to a large number of schools to increase the odds. And now we have floods of applications to many programs. It’s a vicious circle!
@EastchesterMom - I absolutely think that coaches like “success stories”, and I have seen websites with info I know to be inaccurate, b/c I know the kid. BTW- colleges do this too - with things like the % of students who get representation from showcases etc- I saw info on a website that it was 100%, when I personally know 2 kids from the graduating class it referred to who do not have representation (you could find “agency interest” in fine print, denoting all kids in showcase got MEETINGS with agencies… but that’s not the same thing)
@EastchesterMom I’m not an artistic coach and so can’t speak for them. But I am a college counselor (and many of my students are working with some sort of artistic coach), and my clients (whether for MT or any other intended major) have never applied to more than 14 schools if my memory serves me. I don’t believe anyone needs more than 14 if their college list is the right list for THEM. But in my work in the field of college counseling is that many families do not create an appropriate well balanced list and so the list they come to me with initially on their own is not what turns out to be the final list. I also come across many unrealistic students and/or parents. I also have never had a student who got shut out of going to college and all had some choice. Some have more choices than others. Some get into their favorites and some don’t. I believe an essential piece of this process is having the right college list for oneself as a lot follows from that.
@soozievt How does a parent or a kid know whether they are a competitive candidate before they start to audition at various programs? They get some sense from how they line up against their peers at a particular school, but unless they are in a PA school (if they are in a public school) or have gone to a summer program at an elite school, then the litmus test is the process of submitting pre-screens and auditioning right?
Do you think the same is true for the BFA in Acting? My D could have pursued the BFA in MT and almost did but she decided to focus on acting and to apply to and audition at programs that would permit her to still take voice and dance alongside the MT students and, in some cases, even allow her to audition for MT productions. Some of her program choices do not seem to permit that (Michigan for example), but some do (ELON, for example, and Illinois Wesleyan University).
This is a good question. I think it helps to get some idea of one’s competitiveness on the artistic front, just like one weighs their academic qualifications for that part of the admissions process and selecting appropriate schools where they have a chance to be considered.
There is no one way to do this and it is not nearly an exact science. First, a student might have some benchmarks that gives them an idea how they fare among other talented kids in this field. But none of these are foolproof at all…how do they do in casting at the local level…school based and community based? What about regionally? Then, what about any adjudicated events? Such as on the State Level? Nationally? Has the student attended any programs that draw from a wider talent base such as nationally and if so, how did they compare or stand among this group of students? Has the student ever attended competitive professional auditions and if so, how did he/she fare? Now, of course, not every student has been in these various situations and may not have such benchmarks to examine! If that is the case, and they only know how they compare within their own high school, for example, then they should try to get an honest evaluation from voice/acting people who have worked with those who have applied to BFA programs and can give the student a sense if they are competitive for these college programs. For example, I have sent some students to BFA in MT coaches for an evaluation of their skill set since they had not done much outside their own school setting. I recall one time the national coach suggested this student not apply to MT programs (voice not strong enough) and apply to acting ones. I had her apply to some BFA in Acting programs and some BA programs. She landed at Muhlenberg. I am grateful the artistic coach gave her an honest evaluation.
With my own kid, I knew the BFA in MT programs were highly competitive. But I felt she had some benchmarks that indicated she was competitive for this field and so while I knew the odds were slim at each particular program on her list (single digit acceptance rates!), I felt she would get into at least one (turned out much better than that though). I felt she had been “tested” a bit to give some indication that she was an appropriate candidate, which didn’t mean she’d get in wherever she applied, but that she had a shot to not be shut out.
BFA in Acting is also very competitive. In my experience, at most (but NOT all) BFA in Acting programs, the acceptance rates are a little higher than for MT programs. For example, 20% is not as difficult odds as 5%, but still nowhere near a slam dunk! But some tippy top BFA in Acting programs also have single digit acceptance rates. Overall, I think the odds for Acting are a little better than for MT, but there are some programs where that may not be the case.
Actually, pursuing a BFA Acting degree at a school that lets Acting students take voice lessons, dance, etc. and to be cast in musicals is a very viable option for a MT kid. You are right that it doesn’t work at some schools, but it is very doable at others. I can tell you, for example, at NYU/Tisch where my daughter went, the Acting studios had a lot of MT kids in them and in some of those studios, there were singing and dancing classes and all could take private voice. Further, acting students were cast in musicals (this is true at CMU too), and some of them in leads. I know multiple peers of my daughter’s from the Tisch acting studios who are having successful careers in MT, some with leads on Broadway and supporting roles on Broadway in musicals.
PS…you mention Michigan…did you know that Darren Criss was actually in the Acting program at UMich?
I personally know a few extremely talented kids who got into zero colleges for MT and at least one who applied to 20 and got into just one. These are kids with professional credits to their name and in my opinion very competitive for these programs. That leads me to believe that a big piece depends upon that particular years’ talent pool and who they have applying where. Maybe there is an abundance of a certain type applying to one school, but hardly any of that type is applying to another. I don’t know…just a guess. Meanwhile, while we were at JMU for D’s MT audition, one of the current MT students told me she only applied to two schools and got into each one. I was shocked. Another boy (I think acting), said he only applied to JMU and got in. I don’t know what that means but it was the first time during this process I have heard of anyone applying for only one or two schools.
@collegemom2000 I believe you on the kids who got into zero colleges for MT, but we just don’t know the whole picture…was their college list the right one for them? Were their academics qualified for these schools? Do they audition well in high stress situations? Did they have appropriate material? The most qualified kids I know of have not been shut out entirely.
As far as applying to one or two schools, yes, it does seem crazy, and I would never advise it! However, I know of those who have been successful doing just that! There was only one other student from our high school in my D 's year who applied for MT, a good friend of my D’s. That friend only applied to NYU/Tisch and Emerson. She got into and went to Emerson, but was denied at NYU (by the way, it wasn’t due to academics, as she was salutatorian). Ironically, my D got into NYU and not Emerson. My D’s husband went to NYU for Acting and it was the only school he auditioned at. I inadvertently met a classmate of my D and her husband’s from NYU two nights ago when he came to buy something I had listed on Craigslist and he told me NYU was the only school he auditioned at. Still, that has to be uncommon, I would think! Way too chancy for my comfort!
That said, I don’t think that a competitive candidate with a well balanced college list that is very well crafted needs more than 14 schools, though that topic has been debated many times on this forum.
I think competition has always been tough and I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes in waves (like someone mentioned Glee, etc. spurring the recent crop.) My brother dated a theatre major from NYU years ago. She auditioned constantly and never got a single job and she was an amazing triple threat actress. She eventually went back to school and became a physical therapist. That had to be about 20 years ago.
@soozievt I think your statement about kids being ‘qualified’ might be the big issue. Talent is so subjective. If a kid always lands lead roles in their school plays or community productions, does it mean they are talented enough to be in the top schools they are auditioning for? Even assuming they are, then there’s the ‘type’ thing.
@collegemom2000 - Ditto! These kids are very talented and have professional (even some I know have Broadway) credits. I don’t think anyone has brought up the fact that these schools are “casting” their shows as they are choosing students. So some of this has nothing to do with talent. With a class of 12 at some of these schools, if they already have a petite powerhouse blonde Soprano in their casting pool, they aren’t going need another! 
Sometimes you just have to remember that it REALLY isn’t how you do, it is just who they are looking for. It’s something that they have got to learn to deal with now, because they will get more no’s than yes’s in this business.
I was a a theater major at Point Park, years ago… And I remember, after auditioning for the college season as a sophomore, sitting there thinking I was not getting cast in anything and saying, “Nobody told me it was going to be this hard!” I ended up getting a lead my sophomore year, but I never forgot that lesson. Competition is even worse now. I know I never would have gotten in the school by today’s standards!
@DramaQueen219 Agree…talent is very subjective and then there are factors you cannot control such as type and so on. And I don’t know if leads in school shows is enough to go by as a benchmark. It’s a start, but in a very small set of peers. I think how one fares in a wider cross section of peers helps far more than school casting might indicate.
And even beyond talent, some people audition well and some don’t. Auditioning itself is a skill. I think it helped my kid that she had auditioned a great deal in her life prior to auditioning for college and was comfortable in the audition room. I think for some applicants, they have only auditioned for school shows and nothing else.
Let’s also remember that MT involves singing, dancing, and acting. Some who go into this might be a very good singer but not that good at acting or dancing or some other example of that sort. If you are very strong at two and ideally three of these, it helps. Not all applicants are.
But I do know that SOME who are auditioning for MT programs are not true contenders. And this is true also in elite college admissions such as Ivy League applicants. That still leaves a whole lot of people who are competitive for few spots. But remember, many of these same candidates are applying to multiple schools and can only attend one.
D just received a Penn State rejection. She auditioned at Chicago Unifieds.
@owensfolks sorry to hear that.
@owensfolks sorry here too.
Thanks, @emdcollege . To quote my D, via text-“It’s all good.” Tough kids.
Gotta love our tough kids, @owensfolks!
But I’m sorry to hear about Penn.
@owensfolks so sorry! our kids are tougher than we are!
So sorry @owensfolks. You have to love these brave, tough kids!