Yes. The national 50000 (about) sets the Commented Cutoff - this usually becomes public sometime around April (officially not until September.
Of those, 16000 or so get proportionately allocated to states (for example 2000+ to CA, 500 to NJ, 25 to some of the less populated states) and the NM cut off is set up at the state level to match those numbers. NM cutoff must not be lower than the Commended number.
There is a strong correlation between the two numbers, however this is a new test and no one knows exactly what will happen. States with lower numbers tend to see bigger swings. I think the overall expectation is that the commended cutoff will increase a bit. College Board claims scores are equivalent, but overall students are reporting finding the test easier and higher scores. Compass Prep does a deep dive on all this in their blog. They are pretty accurate with predictions but admit that this is new territory.
We are looking at an outstanding SI, but I am worried it may not be enough this time. My hope is that the gains are coming mostly from previously good but not excellent scores, that top scorers would have scored high either way and therefore high SI states won’t see as big a swing (I can hope right?)