This is a common question, about how do you know your level, where to apply where there is a decent chance of getting in. Curtis is extremely difficult to get into, there are kids who get into half dozen of the supposed elite conservatories/music schools, and don’t get past the day 1 cut at Curtis (some instruments they do day 1 and have callbacks) or even pre screen. Curtis obviously is sought out by students globally and many of the kids getting in have exposure to teachers there. Word is many of the kids who go there had exposure to or were studying with teachers there,but obviously kids get in there without that. It is very much a big longshot . It can be helpful IMO in the sense that you are auditioning in front of some pretty big names and are learning to deal with the pressure of doing that, which is useful all through a music journey.
Colburn because it is free is difficult and they don’t have a big faculty (Colburn has one main cello teacher, clive Greensmith, and there is another guy who I think is teaching orchestral rep for the cello. ) so there may not be many slots. It is worth auditioning because financially it is a big deal, it is totally free.
Juilliard is a weird one. Obviously it is competitive as heck, but there also is a range in admissions. Cost is going to be an issue, I know they have been saying they are striving to make it free tuition, but the cost of living is also expensive there. Most if not all their aid was tied to income, both straight FA and merit aid, though with merit aid they may be less restrictive, I have heard conflicting stories.
There are a lot of great music schools out there, and you are wise to think of economics. One thing I highly/strongly/yelling level say is don’t take out loans to do it, it is fraught in other fields and in music it is to be blunt even moreso. Even if the kid is talented, they likely are going to be going to grad school, and then establishing yourself in any way takes time and the pay is not going to be huge, if ever. There was a parent on here years ago who got angry at me, he was sending his son to a school known for its orchestral program (and he was dead spot on), but also was saying how it was okay to take out loans because his kid would get into one of the big orchestras and be fine, and got mad at me when I tried to explain why that was not going to end well.Do students get out of top schools and get into big orchestras right away? A few times, but it is a unicorn. Friend of my son’s he kind of grew up with in music just became the principal cello in the Met Opera Orchestra, but it took him a number of years to do it.
I think it is great to reach for the elite conservatories, you never know, but it is important to map out strategies around finances and also getting in. There are state schools that overall may not be that high a level but have a good teacher there, where the kid can excel and then in grad school go to the top level school. Music is a long path.
One thing I would be careful of is having safeties at all. It is one thing to apply to music programs where for example they have a decent cello faculty, but the overall level is not as high as the tier 1 schools (not as competitive), but that isn’t a safety. A safety to me is for example applying to non audition music programs and I wonder about the value of that, as opposed to working with a good teacher for a year on a gap year then auditioning.
One place I would recommend checking out is Rice University, they in the past have been pretty good with aid and they have good faculty. Selling point, if you are thinking of an orchestra career, it has a very strong orchestra program, one of the best out there. It is a top tier school but it isn’t as crazy as Juilliard or Curtis, for sure.
OP, in terms of your kids level, can I suggest something? You haven’t said where you live, but if there are any big music schools that you can get to, one thing you can do is contact faculty at the school on cello and ask if they would be willing to do an evaluation on your kids level, where she is doing well, where she needs work,to bring her up to a solid level. It would likely cost you (IDK how much they charge these days, depends on the teacher, might be 300, might be 150, really depends) but if you feel your D’s teacher may not know, it is a way to have a benchmark and what to work towards.
Hopefully this helped!